La última encuesta Adimark

Un tirón de orejas al gobierno...(artículo que lo explica)

Que el Presidente baje en su evaluación mensual en la encuesta Adimark no es una noticia nueva. Y porque varios habían levantado la tesis de la estabilización, el desplome de este mes —más consistente con la tendencia de la encuesta CEP—, es un verdadero balde de agua fría para Palacio. Sin embargo, la verdadera noticia de esta última medición es lo que contestan los ciudadanos cuando les preguntan sobre el conflicto de Aysén.

Más aún, las fuertes caídas en la aprobación de los tres ministros inquilinos de La Moneda —Chadwick, Larroulet y Hinzpeter—, grafican nítidamente hasta donde se desplomó la estrategia de la mano dura, con la que el Gobierno intentó repetir la jugada contra los estudiantes y desgastar a los líderes de Aysén.

A favor de Méndez hay que decir que no fue el único profeta de esta tesis. La Moneda corrió a transmitir en off tanto a La Tercera como a El Mercurio su libreto del orden público, justo antes del largo viaje del Presidente a Asia, en plena ebullición de la caldera de Aysén. Recordemos que incluso fue más allá. Antes de emprender dicho periplo se aplicó la Ley de Seguridad Interior del Estado a 22 personas de Aysén como prueba pública de coherencia con la definición instalada.

En una columna anterior señalé que el gobierno perdió la batalla comunicacional contra el movimiento de Aysén desde el momento que despachó el primer avión de Fuerzas Especiales, como recurso de facto ante líderes populares que hablan de manera simple y sobre problemas tangibles que hacen sentido a la mayoría de los chilenos.

Esto es muy distinto a lo que los cercanos al gobierno plantearon como fórmula mágica para mejorar la popularidad, que era la derechista estrategia de privilegiar el orden público (es decir, aplicar el garrote). Lo curioso de este caso es que uno de los defensores de esta línea fue justamente Roberto Méndez, rostro principal de Adimark y el oráculo preferido de Palacio.

En una entrevista a La Tercera del día 17 de marzo, el periodista le preguntó que si era realista y eficaz la postura de no sentarse a negociar mientras existan medidas de presión, a lo que el analista respondió: “Eso es lo que se debe hacer. Esta estrategia se basa en las lecciones que el gobierno sacó de las traumáticas experiencias vividas durante el conflicto estudiantil; algo que le hizo incluso perder apoyo entre los más conservadores, sector especialmente preocupado por el orden público y la seguridad ciudadana. Hoy, La Moneda no quiere ni puede repetir esa situación, por eso es que la única y correcta opción es mostrar dureza, aunque esto implique riesgos”.

A favor de Méndez hay que decir que no fue el único profeta de esta tesis. La Moneda corrió a transmitir en off tanto a La Tercera como a El Mercurio su libreto del orden público, justo antes del largo viaje del Presidente a Asia, en plena ebullición de la caldera de Aysén. Recordemos que incluso fue más allá. Antes de emprender dicho periplo se aplicó la Ley de Seguridad Interior del Estado a 22 personas de Aysén como prueba pública de coherencia con la definición instalada. Esta constituyó una maniobra política torpe por lo evidente al excluir a los más conocidos líderes del movimiento perfilados públicamente como moderados, tratando de apuntar hacia los supuestamente “duros”. Sus diputados, voceros informales y twitteros —y uno que otro halcón de izquierda— se encargaron de recordarle a la Concertación que en sus gobiernos también se usó la mano dura.

El ex Ministro Álvarez, en una cuña muy sabia que no ha sido suficientemente analizada, planteó que él fue el rostro visible de una estrategia que fracasó. La valoración de la encuesta Adimark le da plena razón al ministro respecto al fracaso de la estrategia, y los antecedentes que se han conocido de cómo se manejó la tesis, muestra que fue rostro visible y no partícipe en las decisiones al respecto.

¿Qué viene para los movimientos sociales futuros? Claramente el gobierno perdió la posibilidad de usar el recurso de la fuerza, por lo que la única alternativa que evitará el desplome político es sentarse a negociar inmediatamente, antes que el asunto se convierta en una causa nacional y se apoderé de la agenda, repercutiendo en las encuestas —a las que sigue siendo adicto el Presidente—, y en ese Proteo que no logran controlar, llamado redes sociales.

El 2012 no será quieto. Junto a las reivindicaciones regionales, en abril empieza el ciclo de las movilizaciones estudiantiles. Debido a que el movimiento del año 2011 logró gran notoriedad, pero no obtuvo ninguna de sus propuestas, los actuales dirigentes, manteniendo la alta adhesión, ya tienen buena parte de la batalla ganada.

Esta vez La Moneda no tiene —tal como la ocupó en el año 2011—, la opción de esperar el desgaste para combatir al movimiento estudiantil. Con Aysén se terminó ese recurso. Ahora, el margen de maniobra se achica notoriamente. La segura caída de la reforma al Crédito con Aval del Estado que propuso con fanfarria el gobierno, muestra que Gabriel Boric será un hueso duro de roer, al que no podrán acusar de sobre ideologización. Por tanto, tendrán que sentarse en la mesa de negociaciones a proponer una reforma precisa que signifique un cambio revolucionario en acceso, calidad e igualdad de oportunidades en educación. La complejidad de los asuntos a tratar hace que no puedan tampoco apelar al recurso de esperar que el Presidente se embarque en otro largo viaje para hacer un acuerdo rápido. Por otro lado, el gobierno no resiste otra crisis con un Ministro, por lo que tendrá Piñera que calmar sus ansias de microgestionar y dejar a Beyer actuar.

Por último, la mejor prueba de la seriedad de esta encuesta Adimark es que contradice las tesis del propio Roberto Méndez. A quienes nos toca, por razones laborales, analizar estas encuestas, le agradecemos mucho que guarde la ligereza de conceptos para sus palabras y que siga siendo robusto en sus números.

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